The Decline of the American Republic
The decline of the United States was due to several factors which are obvious from the perspective of the 22nd century. However, even at the time, the weaknesses were well known; political and financial leaders chose to ignore the warning signs.
America rose to economic, political, and military superiority at the end of World War II. European and Asian countries had been devastated by the damage to their cities and industrial base while the U.S., due to its relative geographic isolation, had suffered little harm. This, coupled with an educated populace, allowed their economy to achieve substantial growth, far outstripping its rivals.
The unelected leader (i.e. dictator) of Pakistan, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, recently came out with a statement that denigrates the rights of women. He’s playing the “blame the female rape victim” game for the religious fundamentalists.
I find it very suspicious that Musharraf suddenly spews out a statement like that. Why should Musharraf suddenly throw a bone to Islamic fundamentalists with close ties to the Taliban? Granted, the fundamentalists are a very large and powerful group in Pakistan but why suck up to them at this particular time? I think he’s getting nervous and he’s not the only one making suspicious statements.
Hamid Karzai, the president of Afghanistan, is trying to act like some type of Afghani patriot and whining about U.S. airstrikes and other abuses to civilians. Funny, it didn’t seem to bother him before (snark).
The Iraq War continues to deteriorate for the U.S. military and the public wants to withdraw troops. How long can the U.S. occupy Iraq and Afghanistan? If Bush cannot have both, he’ll stay with the oil in Iraq. At least, he’ll try. But, how much does he really care about Afghanistan?
Karzai has good reason to be nervous given the fate of the last puppet ruler of Afghanistan, Mohammad Najibullah, in 1996. Click here if you want to see a gory picture. The Taliban dragged him out of a UN compound and hanged him from a street light. Recently, news reports state Iraqi insurgents have exported their guerrilla tactics and munitions to the Taliban. Thus, the Taliban have strong international support from the Middle East and from Pakistani religious fundamentalists. Granted, the recent elections seem to encourage Karzai’s government and the Taliban are not the most popular group in the world, but historically, Afghanis hate foreign invaders. They’ve hated them for at least 2500 years and I don’t think that will change in the near future.
If we pull out of Afghanistan, will we keep throwing $billions to Pakistan and Musharraf? Can we even afford to keep on throwing money around with a massive budget deficit?
The Iraqi insurgents will continue to support the Taliban and teach them urban guerrilla warfare. That must be making Karzai nervous. Will the Taliban teach these techniques to an insurgency in Pakistan? Is that making Musharraf nervous?
I’ve been watching the HBO miniseries, Rome, but I have mixed feelings about the program.
For starters, Rome compares poorly to I, Claudius which is an all-time classic in my opinion. I, Claudius was a sharp satire on government and human frailty while Rome plays it straight and relies too heavily on sex and nudity to maintain interest.
The main problem for me, though, is watching the collapse of the Roman Republic; it’s far too close to present-day America. I don’t claim to have any formal training in Roman history but I do have some interest in the subject.
In many ways, we are very close to Rome. Western culture is a direct descendent of Rome but the U.S. seems to have more in common with it than the rest of the world.
Rome was an Etruscan-dominated monarchy which was alleged to be morally corrupt. The Romans claimed they revolted against the Etruscans for reasons of piety, patriotism, civic virtue, etc. The revolution resulted in a type of representative democracy which favored the aristocracy while giving a limited voice to the plebians. In some degree, this is reminiscent of the Puritans in the Colonial Era and the American Revolutionary War.
In any case, Rome grew to dominate its neighbors. Her armies brought home plunder in the form of gold, slaves, and tribute. Rome conquered Egypt, whose farmers could bring in two crops per year. The grain surplus fed the Roman populace. Slaves from conquered nations fueled industry like oil does today.
Rome’s greatest rival was Carthage, which was eventually defeated in the Punic Wars. For Carthage, one could liken it to the USSR.
After the defeat of Carthage, Rome grew far more prosperous and its aristocrats became incredibly wealthy. The vast majority of Roman citizens lived in poverty with high unemployment rates. They survived on a welfare system underwritten by war conquests and aristocrats who bought votes and support with their wealth. The people were pacified with bread and circuses, not unlike Monday Night Football and American Idol.
Traditional Roman virtues decayed and sexual mores loosened. Divorce rates skyrocketed and lawyers became wealthy as Roman citizens constantly sued each other in civil lawsuits. Government corruption and cronyism was rampant.
In a society like Rome which based its power on military conquest, reverses on the battlefield created fear and panic in their people. This made Roman society susceptible to ambitious aristocrats who sought more and more wealth and power. Generals battled each other and civil war raged for decades. Eventually, the senatorial ranks were decimated until there was little opposition to a monarchy/dictatorship which could provide stability to a war-weary country.
Are we there yet? No, Bush is too incompetent. The U.S. military wouldn’t follow him in a coup to topple the government. Who will follow Bush? In the aftermath of an economic breakdown, a demagogue could seize power by promising to reform government corruption.
Bush isn’t the fascist we should fear. It’s the competent fascist who comes after him that scares me.
I was reading about the situation in Gretna, a predominately white city next to New Orleans. In order to keep the “violent and dangerous darkies” from contaminating their pure city, they’ve set up a roadblock manned by armed police officers. Effectively, they prevented thousands of New Orleans residents from escaping a flooded hell.
As bad as this may seem, Gretna was not the only city to block escape routes. Other cities have blocked roads as well.
There was a similar situation in the Great Mississippi Flood. Communities on opposing sides of the river could see the rising water begin to threaten their levees. Each side knew that if the levee broke on the opposing bank, the river would flood the other town. Their community would be saved.
Both sides formed armed groups and patrolled the levees. As far as I know, no one purposefully destroyed a levee.
So, in today’s America, would we break our neighbor’s levee?
I forgot to mention one of the more disillusioning aspects of the story: How Hoover managed to bury the story.
After his investigators confirmed the abuses in the concentration camps (that was the actual term used), Hoover formed a Colored Advisory Commission made up of blacks and led by Robert Russa Moton, a very prominent black conservative leader. Their report also confirmed the allegations.
Hoover was relying on his successful handling of the crisis to win the presidency; he did NOT want any scandal to ruin his reputation as the “Great Humanitarian”. I’m not kidding, they actually called him that.
Hoover cut a deal with Moton to kill the story. Hoover would give Moton and his friends positions in government and give small plots of land to some sharecroppers. Moton jumped at the offer.
A funny thing happens when you sell your integrity to the devil. The devil bends you over and screws you in the ass. Hoover broke all his promises to Moton.
In 1932, Moton threw his support to FDR (who refused to desegregate the military in WWII, by the way). Many blacks left the Republican Party and never came back.
The white plantation owners lost their slaves, erm, um, “workers”, who left the poverty in the south to emigrate to Chicago and other northern cities. Greenville never regained its former prosperity.
Why am I flashing on Mayor Nagin and how he changed his tune about George Bush?
“It didn’t really matter if these people were uncomfortable. It didn’t really matter if they were starving. It probably wouldn’t have really mattered a whole lot if a lot of ’em had died for one reason or another. They were gonna keep their laborers and that’s just ruthless contempt for human beings.” *
Where is this from? The speaker is talking about thousands of poor blacks who were surrounded by floodwaters from a broken levee. A few white people were stranded with them. Transportation was available with room to evacuate all the flood victims but only the whites were taken to safety. The blacks were left behind without food, water or shelter. Eventually they were put in refugee camps patrolled by the armed National Guardsmen. A Republican in charge of federal government relief efforts engaged in a coverup of the refugee scandal.
There are two possible storms brewing, a low-pressure area off the east coast of Florida, and one south of Bermuda. The Florida one has a good chance that it will turn into a tropical depression or worse. If another hurricane hits the U.S., I don’t see how emergency services will be able to cope. With the Bush Administration in charge, the results will be horrifying.
Even if this particular system doesn’t turn nasty, the height of hurricane season is coming up. NOAA is predicting 6 more hurricanes and, historically, 1 of 3 hurricanes hit the U.S. So, statistics indicate a good chance for 2 more hurricanes to pummel the Gulf states. People who live in those areas should gather together an emergency kit to cope with another disaster. This link gives a list of supplies for the kit.
Forecasters predicted landfall and significant strengthening approximately 3 days in advance. Four out of five computer simulations showed a direct hit on New Orleans and they knew warm water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico would increase the hurricane to Cat 4 or 5. Given the topography of New Orleans, government agencies have known for decades that a direct hit by a Cat 4+ would swamp the area and possibly kill 40,000. Shortly before landfall, Katrina swerved slightly to the east so the strongest part of the hurricane struck to the east of New Orleans; the devastation could have been even worse.
I do blame the federal government for their inability to respond both prior to and in the aftermath of the hurricane. I simply cannot understand why they didn’t do SOME of the following BEFORE the hurricane hit:
a) Commandeer every single bus in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and use them to evacuate people without cars. On the return trip, bring in supplies to the shelters in New Orleans and other coastal areas for those who aren’t able to leave in time.
b) Set up refugee centers in schools, auditoriums and military bases in areas safe from the hurricane, and bring in supplies and relief workers.
c) Mobilize the national guard from other states.
d) Commandeer supplies from ALL the supermarkets, sporting goods stores, etc. in and around New Orleans and Biloxi, and put them in the Superdome, the convention center and other shelters.
e) Fill up every available container with water. For that matter, fill every bathtub in hotels near the Superdome, and other shelters.
f) Put together a command and control center to be deployed immediately after the hurricane passes. BTW, doesn’t FEMA have the equipment ready to go on whenever a disaster hits? If so, why did it take so long to implement it?
Approximately 25% of New Orleans residents are below the poverty line and 50% of the children live in poverty. I have not seen ANY news reports that the poor were offered the opportunity to leave. Hundreds of buses are evacuating people now; why didn’t they do that before?
As it stands now, the lack of a timely response WILL result in a larger death toll if the news stories are accurate. CNN and MSNBC are reporting that many people in the shelters have gone without water since the hurricane hit, and there are people still trapped in their homes by floodwater. The emergency is going into its 5th day and the refugees aren’t going to survive much longer without food, water and medical attention.
Bush is getting a lot of negative coverage in the media. A lot of the national guard and the Army Corps of Engineers are in Iraq but it’s unknown how that is affecting the relief efforts. Former goverment aid officials are severely criticizing FEMA for bungling the emergency, however. Congress is passing a bill for $10.5 billion for relief efforts but I’m suspicious that the money will be siphoned off to various corporations; I may be overly cynical but the Bush Admin hasn’t shown much integrity in awarding government contracts. In any case, a recent opinion poll shows Bush’s approval ratings on handling the crisis are very negative and gasoline prices are shooting through the roof which is not adding to his popularity.
The bottom line is that federal and state emergency planning and execution was lacking. Even Bush is admitting that the government response has been problematic which is an amazing admission from a man who never admits errors or takes responsibility for anything.
I also posted this comment on Pen and Sword:
Several months ago, the NOAA predicted a heavy hurricane season, currently projected at 20 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes where 6 of them become major hurricanes. There’s a distinct possibility that the gulf states will be hit by more hurricanes before the season ends on Nov. 30th.
Before resuming my brief review of Afghani history, I should make a few comments concerning the Proto-Elamite and Indus Valley civilizations. Both cultures rose to prominence alongside the great civilizations of Egypt, Mesopotamia and China. Afghanistan lay at the crossroads of those cultures’ trading routes.
Although the Proto-Elamite and Indus Valley cultures had significant roles in the development of civilization, relatively little is known about them since their written languages have not been deciphered.
The Proto-Elamite civilization developed one of the first written scripts (3050 BCE). This language is unlike Sumerian cuneiform (3300 BCE) even though the two cultures lived in close proximity. However, it is uncertain whether the Proto-Elamite spoken language was related to Elamite and no bilingual inscription like a Rosetta Stone exists. Currently, two elements are needed to decipher a written language: 1) Knowledge of the spoken language and 2) A sample of text translated into a known language or a substantial number of text samples and knowledge of the underlying culture. More than 1500 texts exist but they seem to be accounting/trade records; the text may not correlate well with the actual language. Proto-Elamite script was used over a far larger area than the kingdom of Elam. Samples have been found as far east as Afghanistan, which clearly indicates that trade extended into that region.
In the case of the Indus Valley civilization writing, even worse problems prevent decipherment. Only very short samples of text exist in the form of carved stone stamps and insignia on pottery and metal objects. For whatever reason, they did not write on walls, tombs or statues, although it is likely they used some type of paper which has not survived the last 3800 or more years. In addition, the spoken language is almost completely unknown. Linguists might be able to work backwards from existing languages to obtain a “source” language but this is only theoretical. There is a great deal of interest in investigating this language since it may shed much information on the development of Indo-European languages.
This lack of information is especially unfortunate since this culture was unique in several respects. Although they controlled an area larger than ancient Egypt or Mesopotamia, their rulers did not build huge monuments to their own egos, possibly due to their somewhat more egalitarian society. This may explain why the civilization was not rediscovered by western scientists until 1921. Aristoboulus, an emissary of Alexander the Great, wrote of seeing ruins in 326 BCE, but no other historical record exists.
In any case, they preferred to spend their time engaged in careful city planning, and building advanced drainage and sewage systems, granaries, docks, and harbors for their trading ships. Trade was apparently an important part of their economy and Indus Valley artifacts have been found in ancient Sumerian sites.
I think there is a tendency to judge a “great” civilization by the size of the monuments that it erects. However, if I were the ruler of a nation, I’d build sewage systems to avoid epidemics before bankrupting the country by erecting large and useless pyramids.
Due to its geographic location, Afghanistan occupied a critical junction in the Asian trade routes, in particular the ancient Silk Road system. The Khyber Pass is one of the few roads through the mountain ranges of the Hindu Kush region. The name, Hindu Kush, may have originated from the phrase, ‘killer of Indians’ due the high mortality rate of slaves who died en route to auction. At one point, the pass bottlenecks to less than 10 feet wide, creating an important strategic position for an invading army. The mountains range from 11,000 to 23,000 ft., making them almost impenetrable, particularly in antiquity. In comparison, Mt. Everest is 29,035 ft.
Despite the rugged environment, archaeologic evidence shows that Afghanistan has been inhabited for approximately 100,000 years by humans and neanderthals. At Aq Kupruk in northern Afghanistan, there is evidence for domestication of plants and animals dating back many millennia. Remains of early villages date to 7000 B.C. Unfortunately, due to the decades of war, scientific investigation has been severely curtailed.
To the west lies present-day Iran. By approximately 6000 B.C, the Iranian plateau, encompassing eastern Iran and Western Afghanistan, was widely settled by small farming villages. Southwest of the plateau was the Proto-Elamite civilization, lasting 3200 B.C. to 2700 B.C. , but with origins several millennia earlier, and the city of Susa, dating to 7000 B.C.
To the west lay the civilizations of Mesopotamia and Egypt.
South of Afghanistan lies the Pakistani province of Balochistan and the Mehrgarh archaeological site, 1, 2, which was settled approximately 7000 B.C. The inhabitants were eventually able to farm wheat and barley, raise domesticated animals, and make pottery, jewelry, and figurines. From the Balochistan settlements, the Indus Valley civilization was founded, 1, 2.
The Indus River Valley civilization, 2800 B.C. to 1800 B.C., is also known as the Harappan Civilization of the Indus Valley. Its earliest settlements date to 3500 B.C. Over 1,000 villages and cities have been discovered, encompassing Pakistan and parts of Afghanistan and India. This highly developed civilization had a huge trading network with Afghanistan, Persia, Mesopotamia and India.
Since approximately 7000 B.C. and the birth of civilization, Afghanistan has occupied a strategic position for trade routes, invading armies, the spread of Islam, etc. Even today, Afghanistan is a geopolitical keystone. In the 1990s, Unocal was interested in building a natural gas pipeline beginning in Turkmenistan, through Afghanistan, and ending in Pakistan.
In the next few days, I’ll be hitting the high points of the last nine millennia. Tomorrow: Alexander the Great nearly bites it at the Khyber Pass.